Graphic from Census.gov

The release of critical Census data on Thursday showed significant changes and the different ways in which Sarasota and Manatee are growing. Both counties have grown, but in Sarasota, the population has become slightly older and not nearly as ethnically diverse as its neighbor to the north.

In Sarasota County, those older than 18 make up 86.3% of the county and children make up just 13.7% of the population. I’d love to see more data on further breakdowns, but that shows that the county as a whole remains a long-term home primarily to retirees, those who are no longer raising school-aged children. By comparison, Census counters a decade ago found children made up a 2-percentage-point greater share of the overall population.

That means Sarasota has the third-highest adult population of Florida’s 67 counties. That’s behind only neighboring Charlotte, where 87.9% of the population is over the age of 18, and Sumter County, where the growing population of The Villages means a whopping 93% of residents have put their childhood behind them (and their children’s childhood most likely).

But Manatee is a different story. About 81.7% of the population there is over age 18. That puts it at No. 23 among Florida counties, still on the high end of agedness but still with a fair share of family and kids. Now, the percentage of children still dropped over the decade, from 20.5% in 2010 to 18.3% in 2020. But it’s still closer the statewide makeup of 80.5% adults, 19.5% kids. Nationwide, 77.9% of all residents are over the age of 18.

Florida also has become more racially diverse, but not in every corner. While the Census “diversity index” for Florida leapt from 59.1% in 2010 to 64.1% in 2020, the biggest changes seemed concentrated close to the major metros. Hillsborough County, Florida’s third most diverse, had a 67.8% index but communities to its immediate south were less like a melting por.

In Manatee, the index is 49.4%. In Sarasota, it’s 33.8%. Go even further and it’s only 31.4% in Charlotte. By comparison, the indexes in 2010 came in around 43.2% in Manatee, 27.1% in Sarasota and 25.3% in Charlotts

The Hispanic/Latino population has driven much of the growth. In 2010, about  14.9% of Manatee residents fell in that classification while 17.8% do today. In Sarasota, the demographic makes up 10% of the county compared to 7.9% a decade ago. Meanwhile, the percentage of Black residents in both counties has gone down, from 8.4% in Manatee and 4.5% in Sarasota in 2010 to 7.8% and 3.7% respectively now.

It’s pure speculation to derive the political consequence of all this. But there’s also rumors a traditionally Black-held state House seat may not need to stretch south from St. Petersburg all the way to Sarasota after next year's redistricting, and these numbers may fuel that. This could also play a role in the inevitable Sarasota County redistricting, where you may remember legal challenges centered on the impacts to Sarasota’s Black community.

But there’s also something to consider in Manatee, with both state seats and county posts, as far as Hispanic representation. It will take some time to derive information about the concentrations of ethnic populations but there’s as much question as ever about what priority gets placed on representation for the region’s Hispanic residents.

As for questions of age, many have long lamented the seemingly outsized voice of the older retiree population on Sarasota politics, but this data shows it may not be outsized at all. Certainly, there’s no indication it will change any time soon.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor of SRQ MEDIA.

Graphic from Census.gov