The stakes just changed substantially in the 2022 election in U.S. House District 16.

The decision by U.S. Rep. Devin Nunes, a California Republican, not to seek reelection has enormous consequences for the future of one U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Sarasota.

Assuming Buchanan wins reelection and stays on the House Ways & Means Committee, where he has held a spot for years, he will enter the next Congress as the senior-most Republican on the most powerful committee in the House of Representatives. And considering historical trends and the current political climate all but ensure the GOP will take over the House next year, that makes Buchanan the most likely person to chair that committee when Congress convenes in 2023.

To say this could be a great boon for the Sarasota region is like saying dinosaurs should be ready for serious weather when that meteor storm arrives. It’s simply a dramatic understatement considering past Ways & Means chairs saved military bases, opened Veterans Affairs hospitals and rewrote American tax code. 

For several cycles, Democrats have targeted Buchanan earnestly but in all seriousness mostly based on a hope the eight-term congressman would just retire already. And at 70 years old, that may have seemed like a worthwhile hope. As one of the wealthiest members of Congress, he’s not pining for a pension. And if Republicans didn’t seem in a position to reseize the majority, well, a GOP incumbent would have to really weigh the merits of spending time on the beach against regular trips to Washington to vote no and legislation Democrats will pass anyway. I’m sure it has crossed Buchanan’s mind the last few years how long he would choose to endure the purgatory that is being a member of a legislative minority.

But now, not only are Republicans in prime position to take control of the chamber, but they will hand the purse strings of the nation to Buchanan if they do.

I can already hear the stinging feedback. “There goes Ogles, spewing more Republican propaganda from the dark side.” But to be honest, I don’t relish the idea of divided power in Washington during a period of genuinely violent divisiveness in modern political discourse. But this isn’t a column about the bigger picture of democracy in the USA. It’s about enormous stakes for Sarasota.

Martin Hyde, Buchanan’s Republican primary challenger, has already said the fact Buchanan is in line to be even more of an establishment figurehead is not something voters will embrace. Voters are "more concerned with having a Representative who will never compromise their second amendment rights by voting with Democrats on HR 8 than someone who believes in the politics of seniority caused by a lack of term limits,” he said.

Democrats too made the case in 2020 and 2018 that there was something more important than Buchanan building power. “The voters of this district are ready for change,” Democrat Margaret Good said last year, challenging Buchanan’s voting record on Medicare. “Republicans and Vern Buchanan have spent months trying to rip healthcare away from millions of Americans,” alleged Democrat David Shapiro in 2018.

But let me say this all misses the point. Base voters may get excited by base issues like gun rights and health reform, and these are important matters. But the most important work Representatives do isn’t casting major votes. It’s the day-in, day-out efforts to bring as much power to their home district and constituents as possible.

Nobody from this region, or even in the state of Florida, has ever had a chance like Buchanan has now to grip this level of power in Congress. That he’s been more focused on economic issues than these red meat matters just turned into a major political asset as Buchanan seeks a ninth term.

Jacob Ogles is senior contributing editor for SRQ MEDIA.