The fact Sarasota County maintained an A grade in state assessments this year could deliver substantial impact on rhetoric around the 2022 School Board races.

The Department of Education lists the state as the fifth best in Florida, not its highest position ever but the district will in fact keep a streak of As dating back to the launch of district grades. This comes as a time when a particularly angry slice of the public routinely levels criticisms at School Board meetings, and as Gov. Ron DeSantis aims to make school reform a major issue on the trail. He has openly called for voters to throw out School Board members who disagree with his policies, and the local district went through quite a tussle with the Governor over masks last year. One wonders how much this all plays in elections this August.

Issues like charter schools, support of vouchers, parent involvement and teachers’ union priorities will continue to pepper debates and media coverage, as has happened in the past.

I maintain there’s a single factor that more often than not determines the outcome of School Board races. That’s whether parents are happy or not with the education students receive at schools. A listen to board meetings might suggest there’s great discontent over everything from what libraries carry on shelves to what bathroom students use. But the school grades, produced by DeSantis’ administration, show students continue to perform well compared to peers in the state.

How will this translate politically? Locally there’s a curious dynamic. The only incumbent School Board member on the ballot, Bridget Ziegler, remains a close ally of the Governor and recently secured his endorsement for her re-election. A leading conservative figure, she’s effectively run as a ticket with two other School Board members — Tim Enos and Robyn Marinelli. But both of those candidates are facing non-incumbents for open seats.

As increasingly has become the norm, there are effectively Democratic and GOP slates running for all the seats on the board this year. Dawnyelle Singleton has challenged Ziegler for the District 1 seat, Lauren Kurnov faces Marinelli for District 4 and Nora Cietek battled Enos for the District 5 spot.

My hypothesis has always been if parents are content with school performance — and an A grade suggests they should be —  they will retain incumbents. I thought that was well demonstrated four years ago when Ziegler was retained but so were board nemeses Shirley Brown and Jane Goodwin. Eric Robinson’s ouster seemed to defy the rule, a break I attribute to bitterness between the incumbent and then-superintendent Todd Bowden that ultimatlely left both unemployed.

This year? Despite DeSantis’ unhappiness with Sarasota school and the fact Ziegler often casts dissenting votes on the Democrat-majority board, she may benefit yet, having the support both of angry conservatives and of parents who only cared that the district kept its A.

What of the other races? I’m curious. I don’t know that those apolitical parents will care so much about who DeSantis or Ziegler supports for the other seats. Democrats have no incumbent who can lay claim to the district’s successes either, though Brown and Goodwin surely want the Democrat candidates as their successors.

Of note, all three races will be determined in August. DeSantis faces only token opposition in a GOP primary, and will be most focused on marshalling voters for his re-election in November. This means a true test comes Aug. 23 on who cares who runs the Sarasota schools— and whether the board will be selected by angry activists or satisfied parents.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor for SRQ MEDIA.