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A slim Republican margin in Congress means the region remains in suspense over whether U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Longboat Key, will chair the House Ways and Means Committee. While those close to the Congressman expectedew him to attain the gavel before the end of November, votes on all contested committee chairmanships in the House appear to be in the air indefinitely. 

The includes the selection on Ways and Means, where Buchanan competes with Missouri Rep. Jason Smith and Nebraska Rep. Adrian Smith. Maybe decisions happen this week. Maybe January. There’s every reason to believe Buchanan, the senior-most Republican already serving on the powerful committee in the next Congress, holds the edge. But if the lead post on a committee is open, especially one this powerful, it’s going to draw serious competition.

The most reasonable assumption appears to be a reluctance on the part of likely new Speaker Kevin McCarthy to piss off any House Republicans who inevitably will fall on the losing side of GOP Steering Committee decisions. A handful of House Republicans already intend to cast protest votes instead of elevating McCarthy to the top position in the House. With maybe a five- or six-seat majority in the next Congress, he just can’t afford any serious defections.

But that has also given way to some dirty tactics in the chair race. This week, someone planted a tip with Punchbowl News that Buchanan would resign his seat in Congress if he lost the race. Reading between the lines, the implication seemed to be Buchanan would abandon the House and take his vote for McCarthy as Speaker with him.

Buchanan-world pushed back hard on this. “The notion that I would consider resigning is laughable and ridiculous. I’m committed to helping elect Kevin McCarthy Speaker and continue to work every day to earn the support of the Steering Committee to become the next Ways and Means Chairman,” Buchanan told me in a statement.

Reading the words carefully, it’s interesting Buchanan not only splashed cold water on the idea he would quit, but affirmed his rock solid support for McCarthy.

For what it’s worth, I believe Buchanan here for several reasons. Resignation is a big move, one that would tar a lengthy career in the House with a petulant legacy. No one would remember Buchanan as an architect on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement, nor as a champion of low taxes and animal rights. He would just be a quitter. It’s more likely one of the Smiths’ allies leaked the smear, one where the threat appeared realistic even if the personal consequence for Buchanan did not. The move, if nothing else, did force Buchanan’s supporters to respond, and to do something politicians never enjoy publicly doing by discussing how they would respond to a loss.

It doesn’t make sense to me Buchanan would quit, but there’s a bigger reason than his own reputation that convinces me. The report, I must admit, sent me on a flurry of phone calls to ambitious pols I know would have paperwork ready an hour after a Special Election for a congressional seat was called. Not a single one had heard an inkling that Buchanan might retire early. Rather, everyone here is dreaming about the local Congressman securing an out-sized voice on taxes, trade and general power broking.

I swear some of the lawmakers and power players track Buchanan’s exercise and diet habits. If he were likely to retire soon, they’d have plans in place.

Anything could happen, I guess. But the next big congressional vote the area should watch will be in Washington, when members pick a Ways and Means chair. Expect Buchanan to hold his seat the next two years regardless.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor for SRQ MEDIA.

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