Photos: Vern Buchanan, Greg Steube.

A federal qualifying deadline drew few surprises in Sarasota-Manatee congressional districts, though Democratic contests do look different than expected.

Still, U.S. Reps. Vern Buchanan and Greg Steube appear to have little to worry about as the Republicans seek re-election.

In U.S. House District 16, Buchanan’s biggest threat, as it was last cycle, appears to be in the Republican primary. Eddie Speir, founder of Inspiration Academy, qualified to run against him in an Aug. 20 vote open only to Republicans in the district. But the weeks leading up to that milestone were marred by negative headlines that made Speir look less capable of a credible challenge that it even initially seemed.

By the time Speir filed last year to challenge Buchanan, he already bore the distinction of the one New College trustee appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis who was too fringe and crazy for the Republican supermajority in the Florida Senate to stomach. Lawmakers’ refusal to confirm his nomination seemed only to stoke Speir’s anti-elitist attitude and agitate him into a run.

But since then, he’s shown himself utterly incapable of running a decent campaign. Put aside the taxation issues some have raised about him recruiting school staff to work for the campaign and the nepotism charges that inevitably come up when his children and in-laws accept salaries from his campaign payroll. Relying on family and friends may be a way to raise money, but it will take professional expertise for Speir to unseat a nine-term incumbent in a GOP Primary. My guess is that’s such a ridiculous mission against Buchanan no professional consultants will take his calls.

On the Democratic side? Buchanan has faced nationally backed challenges before, but redistricting that recentered this race in Manatee County and a general rightward shift in the local electorate almost make this a moot question. But Jan Schneider, Buchanan’s most frequent Democratic opponent, has qualified. So has Lakewood Ranch political donor Trent Miller. That means there could be a costly contest in August just to see who faces Buchanan in November.

As for House District 17, Steube, an America First conservative who fits well in Donald Trump’s version of Republicanism, made it through qualifying without attracting a Republican opponent. That means he gets a pass straight to November. But again, multiple Democrats jumped into the race and will have to fight for the right to challenge Steube with a clear disadvantage.

United Nations program administrator Matthew Montavon and former Whitney, Texas School Board member both qualified for an August Primary.

Having two Democrats already in the mix urged Andrea Doria Kale, who challenged Steube in 2022, to shift her candidacy and challenge U.S. Rep. Scott Franklin in the Florida Heartland.

Considering Donald Trump won Buchanan’s district in 2020 with almost 54% of the vote and Steube’s district with more than 57%, the races for Democrats would be uphill regardless. But the particular dynamics of these contests mean there’s little to see here.

Still, it means something so many Democrats are trying to fight the incumbents here. Florida Democrats for the first time in years will field candidates in every congressional district in Florida. Most will likely still lose in the fall. But maybe these Democrats, including the ones who win local primaries, can help turnout for Joe Biden in the presidential contest. That may start turning Florida around and back into purple state territory. That could be valuable for Democrats who try to run in future cycles.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor for SRQ MEDIA.

Photos: Vern Buchanan, Greg Steube.