Photo courtesy Manatee County Government.

Tuesday night’s election delivered a staggering sea change in Manatee County. It wasn’t a fight between Republicans and Democrats — most important races were settled in Republican Primaries. Yet those claiming the mantle of conservatism found themselves rejected or ejected from the public square.

Republican voters weighed in on four County Commission seats, the majority of the board. In a move of utter overconfidence, Commissioner Kevin Van Ostenbridge decided to forgo a run for his district seat and challenger at-large County Commissioner George Kruse. Incumbent Ray Turner, appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, stood for re-election and primaries unfolded for two open seats. In every case, the better monied side more aligned with the current majority lost badly. Kruse, a frequent minority in 6-1 votes, beat Van Ostenbridge despite spending less than $70,000 to Van Ostenbridge’s $239,000.

Additionally, James Satcher, a former County Commissioner appointed by DeSantis as Supervisor of Elections, lost his office.

What’s most astounding, though, remains the stark change from elections two and four years ago. A “conservative” revolution hit Manatee in 2020. That year, Satcher unseated County Commissioner Priscilla Trace, Van Ostenbridge won a Primary unopposed, and Kruse (then part of the movement) beat out retired County Administrator Ed Hunzeker after incumbent Betsy Benac bailed late in the cycle. Meanwhile, incumbent Vanessa Baugh became this movement’s leader. November elections, then as now, were inconsequential.

Two years later, a uniform revolution seemed utterly compete. Republican challengers Amanda Ballard, Jason Beardon and Mike Rahm knocked out three incumbents, including the board’s sole Democrat and two moderate Republicans. “Conservatives” had full control.

But what’s that mean for a land-use board? Commissioners touted lower taxes, though rising property values and insurance premiums meant little in savings. Instead, the pro-property rights philosophy took center stage. This enforced the idea developers Carlos Beruff and Pat Neal, who have offered plenty in political donations, controlled the county.

A more noticeable commonality for political observers was that every member of this board relied on the same consultant, Anthony Pedicini. After years of dominance, he lost six of eight Manatee-Sarasota races this cycle.  I asked him what he thinks went wrong. He saw a conflagration of things.

“There was a little bit of electioneering on the part of the Bradenton Times, which sent 17 emails out related to the election in 21 days,” he said. “There was a feeling that development and developers were in too much control of the county... But I think Hurricane Debby really put it over the top.”

In particular, he noted clients Turner and Steve Metallo ran in districts with heavy flooding, keeping turnout low. And admittedly, those Times emails from an anti-growth news blog pushed the boundary between media outlet and political committee.

But these explanations ignore that the anti-incumbent messaging stuck, while the hundreds of thousands of emails supporting the status quo failed. Debby did not target only voters supportive of the sitting commissioners. 

I’d argue the glosser attack ads put out by the establishment slate contributed to its own problems. And not just those sent this cycle. In truth, every member of the current commission arrived there by convincing voters their former commissioners were failures, not because of any version brand of conservatism candidates claimed to represent. If they came to power just to snub the former status quo, what were voters primed to throw bums out left to support two or four years later? Besides, various events cleared some of that board, including Baugh and Satcher, out anyway.

Moreover, most incumbents still relied on smearing new opponents over touting themselves, ironically the same mistake incumbents made in 2022.

Additionally, the DeSantis sheen post-presidential primary clearly wore off with GOp voters, something evident across Florida. Look to South Sarasota, where Neil Rainford, another DeSantis-appointed commissioner (and Pedicini client) lost to Tom Knight, even as unabashedly pro-growth Teresa Mast easily won a north Sarasota commission seat.

I see the Manatee results chiefly as the rubber band effect demonstrated. A group with total control exerted, almost arrogantly, the power to drive rhetoric as far to an extreme as possible. The inevitable snapback ripped hard. The curious part will be what a board of stung losers does over its remaining three months in power.

Photo courtesy Manatee County Government.