In the world of legislative politics, House District 73 enjoys both the benefits and drawbacks of isolation.

The Sarasota seat arguably should be competitive. Voters in the 2020 presidential election split almost evenly, with 49.7% voting for Donald Trump and 49.3% backing Joe Biden. Similarly, Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2018 won the district by less than a point in his recount-close statewide win,  though he took nearly 62% there in 2022 during his landslide re-election.

But House Democrats are not yet pouring resources into the Sarasota area seat, even though Democrat Derek Reich to date has raised more than $179,000 to challenge state Rep. Fiona McFarland, R-Sarasota. He’s done that almost completely from donors with Sarasota County addresses, as the high school teacher develops strong relationships with the region’s affluent donor base.

To be fair, money hardly makes this second-time candidate a hot recruit against a two-term incumbent. McFarland raised nearly $205,000 this cycle just in her candidate campaign account. She beat Reich two years ago winning 56% of the vote. On top of that, she’s affable and sympathetic, a young mother who just gave birth to her fourth child.

And by the way, the fundraising totals only look close if you discount committee money. McFarland’s Friend of Sarasota political committee, which can receive unlimited donations, has more than $431,000 cash on hand, while Reich’s similar Freedom First Fund committee has only about $8,000. So realistically, subtracting any spending out from coffers, the incumbent gets to play with some $613,000 in a low-TV market while the challenger must make due with about $109,000.

But Reich feels like his money better reflects grassroots support. “95% of it from average people living in Sarasota County,” he said. “My average donation is $169. My opponent has taken tens of thousands from developers.”

That’s a familiar refrain. It also discounts that a well-liked incumbent will receive money from countless sources in Tallahassee and the region, or that those local developers do wield influence for positive reasons like job creation and community partnerships. Still, there’s definitely a set of voters who find Benderson Development checks radioactive, and Reich would be foolish not to let those numbers know that glow comes from McFarland’s war chest.

McFarland is more focused on her infant than the trail just this moment, and said she has yet to cross paths with Reich this cycle. Campaign pros around her feel confident she will outperform even optimistic expectations. She’s a female candidate in a county that likes women officials. And she’s worked on a number of bipartisan issues from reducing child care costs to protecting data privacy.

She also went gone along with the party line on some sticky matters both major, like abortion, and local, like the New College takeover and a threat to Sarasota’s school funding during the COVID wars. 

Incumbency brings with it the negative of having a record to attack. Still, the advantages, from name recognition to fundraising prowess, outnumber the drawbacks by far.

Reich also suffers the negative of fighting alone. Sarasota is a Republican County, though parts of it are very blue. I’m not sure anyone in Tallahassee realizes this. Sure, Democrats won a House seat here in 2018, but that was after Trump’s election as president, during a Special Election, and Margaret Good barely held onto the seat in November that year before abandoning it for a failed Congressional run rather than risking defeat to, well, McFarland.

Tallahassee Democrats feel Good’s 2018 win was a lucky fluke, and Republicans have gained in Sarasota registrations ever since. There are no other Democratic or even battleground seats in all of Southwest Florida. Even Tom Edwards’ success in the nonpartisan School Board race in August means he won’t be around to bring coattails in November.

But Reich finds reason for optimism. Edwards, and School Board member-elect Liz Barker, won by big margins in county precincts in House District 73.

The biggest X factor in the race, though, is outside of McFarland’s or Reich’s control. Will the presidential election flip races blue that in 2022 seemed impossibly red? After Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’ debate performance — and Trump’s gaffe-filled failures the same night — there’s reason for blue hope. Then again, Republicans seemed poised for a ballot-consuming landslide six weeks ago.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor for SRQ MEDIA.