Image courtesy Pixabay.

The election of a President from Florida means everyone in the state keeps waiting for political dominoes to fall. But a closer-than-imagined margin in U.S. House seats may prevent any tiles from falling in the Sarasota-Bradenton area.

The exciting news? President-elect Donald Trump appears to be seriously considering U.S. Rep. Greg Steube, R-Sarasota, for a Cabinet level. There’s plenty of reason to think the Congressman could land a job. He’s long proven himself to be loyal to Trump and does a good job advocating for the President on cable news, a talent that seems be playing an outsized role in choices for appointments.

But he’s the downer. Trump can’t name many more people serving in the U.S. House to his administration without seriously threatening a Republican majority there. The latest Associated Press projections show Republican have won 219 House seats to Democrats’ 213.

That said, Trump already appointed two Republican Representatives, Michael Waltz of St. Augustine Beach and Elise Stefanik of New York, to jobs in his administration. He also tapped Rep. Matt Gaetz, a Panhandle Republican, for a job, and while that fizzled out this week, Gaetz resigned his seat and still doesn’t intend to be sworn into another term in January. That effectively means a 216-213 House breakdown right now with three House uncalled nationwide (Democrats hold a vote lead in one) and three GOP seats empty for the foreseeable future.

Some remain optimistic Trump will still find a job for Steube, but with that narrow margin hanging in the air, an appointment won’t come soon. To act much sooner would just hobble House Speaker Mike Johnson.

The other local pol frequently whispered about in state Sen. Joe Gruters, R-Sarasota, a longtime ally of Trump and, perhaps more important, incoming White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.

The problem there? Gruters already has a pretty plush leadership role in the Florida Senate as Fiscal Policy Chair and his eyes on a statewide run for Chief Financial Officer. It’s somewhat unclear how any available job in the administration will boost his political notoriety ahead of 2026, and absent a really good job, Gruters may have no reason to move to Washington (and plenty of people around the President-elect are asking for really good jobs).

Another rumored name, U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Longboat Key, likewise has a nice House gig as Ways and Means Vice Chair now that Republicans have secured a majority, however small. Plus, the same issues facing Steube with that tight majority make even an ambassadorship a risky venture.

I know this column feels like a pile of wet blankets. With that in mind, I should stress we’re in anything-can-happen mode in the political news world, where major developments and shifts happen multiple times a day. Gaetz, for example, was meeting with senators about confirmation on Wednesday.

That means the fantasy scenarios continue to play out in robust fashion in both Sarasota and Manatee counties. Gruters may not give up a CFO run to be deputy director of Amtrak, but he just might do it for a run for either Buchanan’s or Steube’s congressional seats. So might state Rep. James Buchanan, the son of the sitting Longboat Key Congressman. And if any other state lawmakers or county commissioners feel intimidated by a run for Congress could well fell the lure of a an state Senate or House seat if one of them runs.

It may not happen next week, but some time between now and 2026, expect the first move in a chain reaction that could remake the political landscape thoroughly in the region.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor for SRQ MEDIA.

Image courtesy Pixabay.