Photo courtesy Florida House: State Rep. James Buchanan.

State Rep. James Buchanan, R-Sarasota, just threw down the gauntlet on maybe the most important local race of the 2026 election cycle in the region. The four-term House member filed to succeed state Sen. Joe Gruters, R-Sarasota, in Senate District 22.

This could become the hottest race around. Or it could be a sleeper. The first big test will be if Buchanan’s name and clout with voters keeps other serious contenders from throwing their hats in the ring.

I hear mixed opinion whether he can muscle anyone from even filing, but there’s no question the Buchanan name means a lot here. Buchanan served in the House, longer than any sitting Sarasota lawmaker, and his resume will continue to grow as part of Speaker Danny Perez’s leadership team. He has shown strong policy literacy in environmental and economic issues along the way. 

There’s also the fact his father, U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Longboat Key, has represented some part of the Sarasota-Bradenton area for nearly 20 years in Congress.

That means not only a familiarity with voters used to bubbling beside the Buchanan name, but a political donor network with connections in Tallahassee and Washington.

But there’s reason to think Buchanan won’t win without a fight. Open state Senate seats don’t pop up every day. Whoever wins the seat in 2026 will likely be there eight to 10 years.

The most obvious contender would be state Rep. Fiona McFarland, R-Sarasota. She’s starting her third term, and unlike Buchanan won her elections in a swing seat. That means more cash was spent and more doors were knocked to ensure voters knew her name. She brings policy expertise as well, particularly on digital privacy and child welfare. 

And she also has a family with Washington connections. Mother K.T. McFarland worked in Donald Trump’s first administration after running for U.S. Senate in New York and remains a regular contributor on Fox News. A look at Fiona McFarland’s social media feed shows the Trump-world cred garnered recent invites to Mar-a-Lago at a time when everyone wants to visit the incoming president.

Both candidates have their own negatives. Buchanan tried coasting on his father’s name once to disastrous results, losing a Sarasota House race to Democrat Margaret Good in 2018. That’s the district where McFarland first won election to the House in 2020. But McFarland has necessarily broadcast a moderate image in her Sarasota seat, while Buchanan touted conservative credentials that matter to south Sarasota and Manatee voters. The Senate race will effectively be decided in a Republican primary.

There’s another X factor: the timing of the election. There’s a non-zero chance Gruters leaves the Senate earlier than expected. Jimmy Patronis will leave the Cabinet post of Chief Financial Officer in April, and Gruters already filed to run for that job in 2026. Gov. Ron DeSantis will appoint someone to serve out the last 20-plus months of Patronis’ term.

Will Gruters get the job early? The senator and DeSantis haven’t always enjoyed the best relationship. But Gruters boasts endorsements from Trump and Patronis, so appointing Gruters would arguably be a politically easy move. Most expect DeSantis to favor a loyalist for that job, but if he picks Gruters, a Special Election for the local Senate seat would happen this year.

Buchanan by filing can already raise money for a run. That may be especially important come March, when the Legislative Session bars both he and McFarland from raising money for a state office. If McFarland — or anyone else — is pondering a challenge, the time is now.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor to SRQ MEDIA.

Photo courtesy Florida House: State Rep. James Buchanan.