The coming week is one of the most exciting periods of the political season. No, it’s not Election Day. That’s when the suspense ends. This is qualification week.

From noon on Monday until noon on Friday, we’re in that phase when anything can happen. Surprise contenders. Sudden retirements. Closed primaries. No one knows for sure what will happen, but almost surely, something will happen that most of us for the moment don’t suspect. But here’s a few things I will be looking for, not because I have particular insight but precisely because I don’t.

State House District 73

The Sarasota-centered House district has a new shape and a new number, but remains as swingy as ever. Republican Rep. Fiona McFarland holds the seat today. But so everyone knows, nobody has served this seat or one analogous to it for a full eight years since term limits first came into existence. McFarland won the seat in 2020 after Democrat Margaret Good gave it up to run for Congress. Good won the seat in a nationally watched special election viewed as a mid-midterm referendum on Donald Trump in early 2018, and held onto it the following November. Before her, Republican Alex Miller won the seat in a seeming landslide but only when a sex scandal knocked the Democrat out of serious contention.

And toss aside what you think you know about gerrymandering. This seat is more divided than ever. Republican Donald Trump won here but by less than half a percentage point over Democrat Joe Biden in 2020.

But to date, only one Democrat is running, first-time candidate Derek Reich. Sure he could put up a fight, but McFarland has almost $200,000 cash to operate with now. The question this week is if a Democrat with an existing fundraising network and more name recognition gets in the race.

Sarasota County District 2

To date, there are five candidates filed for this Sarasota County contest and not one of them is named Christian Ziegler. There’s candidates including Mark Smith on the Republican side hoping that means the incumbent will sit this race out. Is Ziegler, also vice chair of the Republican Party of Florida, ready to bow out of public office after one term?

There’s arguments to made either way as to what’s the wiser move. He won election county-wide, where whoever secured the Republican nomination was bound to win the office. But the race will be decided this year in a district election — despite Ziegler’s best efforts to convince voters to abandon single-member elections earlier this year. The district has more Democrats in it than Republicans, but not that many more. There’s good Democrats in the race, but all have significant flaws. At least right now, this election cycle feels like one where Republicans will get a boost up and down the ballot, so an incumbent with name recognition might be able to ride a red wave over any numeric disadvantage. 

We’ll learn this week if the hyper-partisan Ziegler will roll the dice  and run again or take a more conservative (with a lower case c) route.

School Board runoffs

This is some mechanical minutia, anyone who has followed School Board races in the region knows Democrats perform better in August and Republicans do better in November, especially with nonpartisan races. I know, I know, parties in School Board races? Well clutch your jewels, they will be more involved than ever this year. 

What I notice looking at the Sarasota candidate roster is every race has just two candidates. That means races will be decided effectively in August. But if a third candidate appears on the ballot, as is the case in most Manatee County School Board races, there’s a much higher probability nobody secures a 50% majority in the primary and the top two vote-getters will advance to November. Some of the most important school races in the last decade (Bridget Ziegler, Scott Hopes) were won by candidates who came in second in the primary but prevailed in November.

But these are just the questions I start the week with. The fun will come with scenarios not publicly imagines but likely being concocted in kitchen table consultations as we speak.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor of SRQ MEDIA.

The Florida Chamber of Commerce unveiled its 2022 Florida Chamber Legislative Report Card, showcasing grades earned by all 160 legislators in the Florida House and Senate based on their votes during the 2022 Legislative Session and Special Session D.

“Working together as a unified business community is how we will keep Florida’s economy growing and competitive,” said Florida Chamber of Commerce President & CEO Mark Wilson. “As Florida continues to pace the nation’s economic recovery out of the pandemic, Florida’s business climate must remain a priority if we are going to continue on the path to grow private sector jobs, diversify our economy, and create additional economic opportunities for all Floridians.”

The Florida Chamber’s 2022 Legislative Report Card is an annual opportunity to recognize members of the Florida Legislature who placed making Florida more competitive through non-partisan private-sector job creation above special interests and attempts to protect the status quo.  The Report Card also lets Florida families, small businesses, taxpayers and voters know who voted in favor of private sector job creation and a stronger, more diversified economy.

After tabulating more than 3,100 votes cast during the 2022 Legislative Session and Special Session D, the Florida Chamber’s Legislative Report Card shows:

• Average GPA for both legislative chambers was 68 percent
• Average Senate GPA was 78 percent
• Average House GPA was 65 percent
• Legislators earned 32 A’s, 48 B’s, 21 C’s, 9 D’s and 50 F’s

Lawmakers who earned high grades this legislative session focused on important competitiveness issues

• Healthcare COVID-19 Liability Protections: Extending the commonsense COVID-19 liability protections expiring for health care facilities to continue to protect our healthcare heroes from frivolous litigation through June 2023.
• Significant Long-Term Infrastructure Funding:  Investment in the infrastructure necessary to meet the needs of current and future Floridians with another $10B+ for the FDOT’s five-year workplan, approximately $362M for attainable workforce housing, and record funding for water quality, resiliency, and environmental restoration efforts.
• Improving Education Outcomes via Student Assessments Overhaul: Replacing the end of the year high-stakes Florida Statewide Assessment with a computer-based state standards-aligned progress monitoring testing system to better support student growth and improve accountability to teachers and parents throughout the school year.
• Local Business Protection Act: Protecting local businesses from burdensome and overreaching local government regulations by allowing local businesses to recoup damages if a local regulation results in a significant loss of business profitability.
• Property Insurance Reform: Taking steps to stabilize Florida’s property insurance crisis and a market that has been described as “on life support” through overdue lawsuit abuse reform that discourages litigation by bad actors and billboard trial lawyers.
• Florida Tourism Marketing: Reauthorizing VISIT FLORIDA, the state’s tourism marketing arm, through October 1, 2028, to provide certainty and allow VISIT FLORIDA to long-term plan and hire and retain top talent.

The Florida Chamber of Commerce released its Legislative Report Card on Friday. 

Graphic: Information courtesy Florida Chamber