The U.S. Supreme Court delivered a one-two punch that dramatically could reshape America’s political landscape heading into the mid-terms. It started Thursday with a gun control decision that could call into question every firearm law in the nation, and wrapped Friday with a ruling overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision. But will that change the prevailing wisdom Republicans go into this election year in a strong position?

Don’t count on it. For one thing, these decisions came days after qualifying, when races of consequence were won by Republicans by default

It’s broadly understood these days midterms mean madness for the party not occupying the White House. Frequently, this gets credited to a desire to throw the bums out, but it’s a bit more nuanced than that. An enormous slice of the U.S. electorate cares about only one election, and it only comes up every four years. There’s evidence in local turnout. In 2020, about 80% of Sarasota and Manatee county voters cast ballots in the November general election. Compare the 2018 midterms, where three statewide elections in Florida were so close they went to recounts but only 67% of voters in either county participated in the general. That means you start with a less broad slice of the electorate. Intrinsically, it’s the most enthusiastic voters across the spectrum making decisions. 

It can be assumed most Republican super-voters’ feeling on President Joe Biden range from disapproval to disgust, much as Democrats felt in 2018 about Donald Trump. But most Democrats this election may feel they won the big battle by preventing a second Trump term , while Republicans see this election as a chance to place a congressional check on an administration with full control of Washington. Those who imagine moody swing voters shifting from Biden backers in 2020 to lovers of the GOP make a misguided assumption. Midterms are base elections.

The trick now is the Democratic base just got a huge awakening. Biden doesn’t control all three branches of government. Democrats don't feel motivation to place a check on Trump but may feel the need to deliver one on a 6-3 conservative Supreme Court.

The thing is, conservative voters feel energized as well. They may not have needed it but these rulings do as much to validate their agenda. Indeed, these back-to-back rulings deliver victories for conservatives on perhaps the two most important issues to Republican base voters: abortion and gun rights.

A critical aspect of the court decisions should soon come into view of more voters; these rulings mean higher stakes in state elections. After all, overturning Roe doesn’t mean all abortions become illegal. It means states can pass laws outlawing procedures if they choose. Additionally, state legislatures will rewrite gun laws and decide how to pursue licensing requirements.

And locally? Well, there are Democrats, Jan Schneider and Andrea Doria Kale, filed against U.S. Reps. Vern Buchanan and Greg Steube, two Republicans representing the region in Congress. But neither is a nationally backed candidate. So what about state level position? Ha.

Republican state Sens. Jim Boyd and Joe Gruters face primary opposition, but there will be no Democrats challenging them in November. Liberals hoping to back an opponent in an open primary should know Gruters’ Republican opponent is a far-right candidate uninterested in moderating abortion policy.

State Reps. Will Robinson, James Buchanan and Michael Grant, all Republicans, face no opposition at all. State Rep. Tommy Gregory faces a symbolic Demcoratic challenge in a deep-red district. State Rep. Fiona McFarland, a Republican who voted for a 15-week abortion ban this year, is running in a swing district but midterm fears from any well-positioned Democrtas mean no one filed against her besides first-time candidate Derek Reich, who lacks resources or a veteran professional campaign.

The best Democrats could hope for in this mid-term is to match the energy of Republican voters. That may not be enough in many cases. But it turns out they aren't running anyone anyway.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor for SRQ Media. 

Image via Pixabay

I am the president of a downtown Sarasota condominium that has just become the first condominium in Florida to pass the State's newly-mandated Phase One Milestone Inspection for structural inspection of older condominiums.

That’s right — the new law was signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis on May 26 and went into effect immediately, requiring all condominiums of "three stories or higher in height” that are older than 25 years and within three miles of the coast (or older than 30 years) to complete a Phase One Milestone Inspection by December 31, 2024 and every 10 years thereafter. And as the attached report from Karins Engineering Group dated June 3 indicates, the Frances Carlton Condominium (on North Palm Avenue in Sarasota) has passed just such a Phase One Milestone Inspection as conducted by them. And as a result, no Phase Two inspection is required. We are set for another 10 years.

Being three stories high, the Frances Carlton just meets the minimum height requirement for the newly mandated structural inspection — but having been built in 1924, this historic building (on the National Register of Historic Places) is 98 years old and thus far in excess of the minimum age requirement for coverage by the new law.

So how were we able to respond to the new law so quickly? By a combination of foresight and coincidental timing. Last year, right after the tragic condo collapse in Surfside (the one-year anniversary of which is this coming Friday, June 24), there was a lot of news reporting about the likelihood of a new state law requiring structural evaluations of all older condominiums. The Board of Directors of the Frances Carlton felt that when this happened, there would be a scramble by all affected condominiums to hire structural engineering firms, which is in fact why the new law’s deadline is the end of 2024, and that we might well have difficulty in finding one to work with us. So we jumped the gun, and started looking last year and were very fortunate to sign up a major, highly-regarded structural engineering firm, Karins Engineering Group.

But by the end of last year, the Legislature had not yet acted on this and had no specific requirements in place. So earlier this year, we had Karins go ahead and start the structural evaluation of our building anyway — something we felt would then give us a running start if and when a new law went into effect, and would also be just a good thing to have for a 98-year-old building, regardless of any legal requirement. 

Karins started inspecting various aspects of our building and reviewing related documentation and previous contractor reports — and then in late May, the Legislature suddenly acted to pass the new law and put it into effect immediately. Karins then had the legal specifications for what can be formally designated as a Phase One Milestone Inspection and the required contents of the report. It conducted its final site inspections at that point, and then issued its report stating that our building passed — the new law requires a specific finding of “no signs of substantial structural deterioration”. 

More specifically, look at the Summary of the report, on page 15. The key findings are: 

• “Frances Carlton does not appear to have any substantial structural deterioration.”
• “This report meets the requirements of a Phase 1 inspection.”
• “Frances Carlton currently does not require an additional more intensive Phase 2 inspection.”

The Washington Post indicated “the state does not have enough structural engineers to handle the workload required to make sure all the state’s high-rise condominiums are safe. . . . There’s a high demand for them on new construction alone.” But fortunately for the Frances Carlton Condominium, that’s something we won’t have to worry about for another 10 years.

And thus my conviction that Sarasota’s historic Frances Carlton Condominium is surely the first condominium in the entire State of Florida to have taken and passed the newly mandated requirement for this type of structural inspection.

John Mercer is president of the Frances Carlton Condominium Association.