A slim Republican margin in Congress means the region remains in suspense over whether U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Longboat Key, will chair the House Ways and Means Committee. While those close to the Congressman expectedew him to attain the gavel before the end of November, votes on all contested committee chairmanships in the House appear to be in the air indefinitely. 

The includes the selection on Ways and Means, where Buchanan competes with Missouri Rep. Jason Smith and Nebraska Rep. Adrian Smith. Maybe decisions happen this week. Maybe January. There’s every reason to believe Buchanan, the senior-most Republican already serving on the powerful committee in the next Congress, holds the edge. But if the lead post on a committee is open, especially one this powerful, it’s going to draw serious competition.

The most reasonable assumption appears to be a reluctance on the part of likely new Speaker Kevin McCarthy to piss off any House Republicans who inevitably will fall on the losing side of GOP Steering Committee decisions. A handful of House Republicans already intend to cast protest votes instead of elevating McCarthy to the top position in the House. With maybe a five- or six-seat majority in the next Congress, he just can’t afford any serious defections.

But that has also given way to some dirty tactics in the chair race. This week, someone planted a tip with Punchbowl News that Buchanan would resign his seat in Congress if he lost the race. Reading between the lines, the implication seemed to be Buchanan would abandon the House and take his vote for McCarthy as Speaker with him.

Buchanan-world pushed back hard on this. “The notion that I would consider resigning is laughable and ridiculous. I’m committed to helping elect Kevin McCarthy Speaker and continue to work every day to earn the support of the Steering Committee to become the next Ways and Means Chairman,” Buchanan told me in a statement.

Reading the words carefully, it’s interesting Buchanan not only splashed cold water on the idea he would quit, but affirmed his rock solid support for McCarthy.

For what it’s worth, I believe Buchanan here for several reasons. Resignation is a big move, one that would tar a lengthy career in the House with a petulant legacy. No one would remember Buchanan as an architect on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement, nor as a champion of low taxes and animal rights. He would just be a quitter. It’s more likely one of the Smiths’ allies leaked the smear, one where the threat appeared realistic even if the personal consequence for Buchanan did not. The move, if nothing else, did force Buchanan’s supporters to respond, and to do something politicians never enjoy publicly doing by discussing how they would respond to a loss.

It doesn’t make sense to me Buchanan would quit, but there’s a bigger reason than his own reputation that convinces me. The report, I must admit, sent me on a flurry of phone calls to ambitious pols I know would have paperwork ready an hour after a Special Election for a congressional seat was called. Not a single one had heard an inkling that Buchanan might retire early. Rather, everyone here is dreaming about the local Congressman securing an out-sized voice on taxes, trade and general power broking.

I swear some of the lawmakers and power players track Buchanan’s exercise and diet habits. If he were likely to retire soon, they’d have plans in place.

Anything could happen, I guess. But the next big congressional vote the area should watch will be in Washington, when members pick a Ways and Means chair. Expect Buchanan to hold his seat the next two years regardless.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor for SRQ MEDIA. 

Image courtesy Facebook.

As buyers in the mid-tiers of the Sarasota Real Estate Market hit the pause button to wait out rising interest rates, increases in housing prices, and an improvement in inventory, luxury buyers appear to be staying on pace with purchases.

The Fed’s rapid increase in interest rates as a strategy to regulate the economy has resulted in the same pace of increase in borrowing rates. Though mortgage rates are still well below historical averages, they are now nearly twice what they were last year. Most sales in the mid-tier sectors rely on mortgages, thereby reducing a buyer’s budget or creating hesitancy in buying a home until they feel rates have stabilized.

Rising interest rates are also a disincentive for existing homeowners to list their properties, as most in the mid-price ranges will need to borrow for their next property. This conundrum has caused listings of properties under $1 million to stall significantly, and sales to drop more than 50% year-over-year.

However, in the luxury tiers over $1 million, October experienced 80% growth in sales and a steady flow of new listings coming to market compared to last year. Most luxury buyers are using alternative financing strategies for their purchases, including full-cash transactions, which are not affected by interest rate fluctuations.
In addition, during volatile economies, affluent buyers are driven more by quality of life and the sense that real estate is a safe long-term investment.

Those Fed market strategies noted earlier have also created volatility in the investment markets and fear of a potential recession, compelling even more affluent buyers to consider moving their money into vacation or investment property.

In the attached chart you will see how Sarasota’s luxury sector has fared month-end October over the last four years when comparing inventory, sales, and length of time from listing to sale.

Many seeking homes in the Sarasota area have been on the hunt for some time. They have narrowed their search to specific communities, neighborhoods, and buildings – some precise addresses or condominium numbers. They can wait, their means of purchasing is established, but I am seeing their price expectations very firm. Sellers are realizing that the days of multiple offers over list price as seen these last few years has faded, and it is time to align with buyer value expectations more closely.

The Sarasota Real Estate Market is known for its value when compared to other highly desired resort areas, and our properties will hold their value over the long-term. These factors help both domestic and international buyers consider our region a “safe haven” for their real estate investment.

Economists believe it is likely the US economy may move into a modest recession in early 2023, which should influence the Fed to pull back on rates creating a more normalized/flat rate environment by mid-year. Because of the relative strength of the real estate market’s foundation, it is expected that housing will be a catalyst to lead the economy out of what is predicted to be a brief recession.

Though year-over-year sales, inventory and pending sales have slowed, they are similar to pre-pandemic levels. Inventory in all price points is still at historically low levels, and demand remains high. Prices in our region continue to grow at a pace well above Florida and US markets, leading me to believe The Sarasota Real Estate Market will stay stable during the bumpy economic months ahead.

Michael Moulton is a Realtor with Michael Saunders & Company. 

Image courtesy Sarasota's Finest Properties

Sarasota's Finest Properties