It was always true that Joe Gruters would leave the Florida Senate in 2026. A decision to go ahead and file for Chief Financial Officer that year sent a quick reminder to the political world. I suppose there’ a non-zero chance his departure comes early if Donald Trump is elected President again, though the filing signals the seven-year Senator already has his eyes on a statewide office prize.

Regardless, this could have some serious political ramifications as many a local politician finds themselves looking at the job with various levels of urgency. Why not, despite primaries looming in less than two months, explore the ramifications of an open Senate seat in 2026?

Both state Reps. Will Robinson, R-Bradenton, and James Buchanan, R-Venice, are heavy favorites for re-election this year, but term limits mean they wouldn’t be able to run for another House term in 2026. While Robinson would be a better fit to succeed state Sen. Jim Boyd, R-Bradenton, that is unlikely to open soon with Boyd eyeing the Senate President’s gavel after the 2026 elections.

State Rep. Tommy Gregory, R-Lakewood Ranch, is part of the same House class, but he announced earlier this year he would step down to take a job as president of State College of Florida Sarasota-Manatee. But there are five candidates to succeed him in Florida House District 72. Four are Republicans, and the winner is likely to succeed Gregory. They could also become a contender to succeed Gruters in Senate District 23.

Based on her constituency, state Rep. Fiona McFarland, R-Sarasota, seems a natural fit to run for Gruters’ seat, though that would mean a risky move in forgoing a fourth term. She, by the way, seems to be the favorite for re-election to her seat now over Democrat Derek Reich, but the seat is the only arguably competitive one in the region that a Democrat could win. That gives McFarland some incentive to run instead for a safe red seat in the Senate even if it means a competitive primary.

The general feeling is she will win re-election in House District 73 as long as she files to run there, but there’s a risk of a blue wave every cycle, and Democrats can and have won the Sarasota-based House district when conditions are right. Should McFarland leave the seat open in 2026, the big news may well be the House seat becoming an instant battleground.

Of course, a host of state and county officials in both regions could also turn their attention to the Senate seat. I can think of a few Sarasota school Board members who may prefer to run for this job rather than face an assuredly nasty re-election bid, assuming they still have any interest in public office at all by that point.

Gruters managed to win the seat with no Republican Primary opposition in 2018, but he had a rare amount of political strength as a long-time local party leader connected closely to Trump’s campaign. A 2026 race will more likely resemble when now-U.S. Rep. Greg Steube ran for Sarasota’s open Senate seat. He was a state representative then but faced County Commissioner Nora Patterson, fellow state Rep. Doug Holder and former state Rep. Ray Pilon in a competitive race the Republican nomination that came down to the wire. Democrats had a competitive Primary too, for that matter.

It may seem ridiculously early to consider the political fallout of an open seat on the ballot years from now. But politics is a game of chess, and that’s a game that requires figuring out an opponent’s possible move several steps in advance. Honestly, any candidate waiting to game out the primary now is probably a little late to the game.

Jacob Ogles is contributing senior editor for SRQ MEDIA. 

Image via Facebook: Joe Gruters.

All price points in the Sarasota Real Estate Market experienced increased sales of 11% over the prior year in the month of April. Interestingly, all four regions of the U.S. reported a decline in transactions in the month.

The greatest number of properties changing hands in Sarasota were in the $200,000-$400,000 range, which is where many first-time homebuyers and young professionals are purchasing and also the price point where the largest growth in inventory for sale was.

In the million-dollar-and-higher tier, sales growth was more than 80% year-over-year, along with nearly 10% more pending sales inked in the month of April. The pending sales data (contracts closing in the next 30-60 days typically) indicates the luxury market will likely continue to outpace prior year – at least for the near future. Looking at year-to-date data, the higher-end homes and condos appear to be tracking consistently above the same period in 2023 with sales up 33% and pending sales growth of 19.4%.

Despite a considerable increase in available properties for sale, it appears that many buyers in the more modestly priced homes segment are hampered by mortgage rates. Now hovering in the 7% range, with economists projecting relatively little movement before 4th quarter 2024, many are still unable to make a purchase. There is a great deal of pent-up demand in the mid-market price tiers, which is unlikely to be unleashed until rates fall to 6% or below.

Generally, the mid-price points sales trends are tied to rising or declining mortgage rates, whereas luxury market fluctuations tend to be more sensitive to stock market gains or losses. With strong financial markets in the 4th quarter 2023 and 1st quarter 2024, it is believed to have prompted more buying at the top of the real estate market. And when they do buy, the majority are paying cash in Sarasota – 56% of all sales last month – compared to the national average of 28%.

With the inventory of homes and condos returning to a normalized level, buyers appear to be responding to the increase in choices, as evidenced by the growth in sales and contracts signed. Having more properties for sale is also putting pressure on price escalation, forcing many sellers to reprice their listings to remain appealing as competition intensifies for similar properties. I believe that our market has a sizeable pipeline of would-be buyers, leading me to project continued modest increases in year-over-year market performance.

In today’s ever-changing real estate market, the value of partnering with a highly experienced, locally as well as globally connected agent/broker, and a skilled negotiator and advocate cannot be overstated. Having served clients in The Sarasota Real Estate Market for 40 years and carefully analyzing our business conditions, I have developed essential insight to assist both sellers and buyers in achieving their objectives.

Buying homes takes a good bit of strategy. As new listings come on the market there are many eager buyers waiting to jump at a property that can meet most of their wish list. Buyers need to be prepared to communicate their primary goals to their realtor so that we can alert you as soon as we hear of something that is coming on the market or has listed and checks most of your boxes.

Michael Moulton is a Realtor with Michael Saunders and Company. 

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