Tuesday night’s election delivered a staggering sea change in Manatee County. It wasn’t a fight between Republicans and Democrats — most important races were settled in Republican Primaries. Yet those claiming the mantle of conservatism found themselves rejected or ejected from the public square.

Republican voters weighed in on four County Commission seats, the majority of the board. In a move of utter overconfidence, Commissioner Kevin Van Ostenbridge decided to forgo a run for his district seat and challenger at-large County Commissioner George Kruse. Incumbent Ray Turner, appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, stood for re-election and primaries unfolded for two open seats. In every case, the better monied side more aligned with the current majority lost badly. Kruse, a frequent minority in 6-1 votes, beat Van Ostenbridge despite spending less than $70,000 to Van Ostenbridge’s $239,000.

Additionally, James Satcher, a former County Commissioner appointed by DeSantis as Supervisor of Elections, lost his office.

What’s most astounding, though, remains the stark change from elections two and four years ago. A “conservative” revolution hit Manatee in 2020. That year, Satcher unseated County Commissioner Priscilla Trace, Van Ostenbridge won a Primary unopposed, and Kruse (then part of the movement) beat out retired County Administrator Ed Hunzeker after incumbent Betsy Benac bailed late in the cycle. Meanwhile, incumbent Vanessa Baugh became this movement’s leader. November elections, then as now, were inconsequential.

Two years later, a uniform revolution seemed utterly compete. Republican challengers Amanda Ballard, Jason Beardon and Mike Rahm knocked out three incumbents, including the board’s sole Democrat and two moderate Republicans. “Conservatives” had full control.

But what’s that mean for a land-use board? Commissioners touted lower taxes, though rising property values and insurance premiums meant little in savings. Instead, the pro-property rights philosophy took center stage. This enforced the idea developers Carlos Beruff and Pat Neal, who have offered plenty in political donations, controlled the county.

A more noticeable commonality for political observers was that every member of this board relied on the same consultant, Anthony Pedicini. After years of dominance, he lost six of eight Manatee-Sarasota races this cycle.  I asked him what he thinks went wrong. He saw a conflagration of things.

“There was a little bit of electioneering on the part of the Bradenton Times, which sent 17 emails out related to the election in 21 days,” he said. “There was a feeling that development and developers were in too much control of the county... But I think Hurricane Debby really put it over the top.”

In particular, he noted clients Turner and Steve Metallo ran in districts with heavy flooding, keeping turnout low. And admittedly, those Times emails from an anti-growth news blog pushed the boundary between media outlet and political committee.

But these explanations ignore that the anti-incumbent messaging stuck, while the hundreds of thousands of emails supporting the status quo failed. Debby did not target only voters supportive of the sitting commissioners. 

I’d argue the glosser attack ads put out by the establishment slate contributed to its own problems. And not just those sent this cycle. In truth, every member of the current commission arrived there by convincing voters their former commissioners were failures, not because of any version brand of conservatism candidates claimed to represent. If they came to power just to snub the former status quo, what were voters primed to throw bums out left to support two or four years later? Besides, various events cleared some of that board, including Baugh and Satcher, out anyway.

Moreover, most incumbents still relied on smearing new opponents over touting themselves, ironically the same mistake incumbents made in 2022.

Additionally, the DeSantis sheen post-presidential primary clearly wore off with GOp voters, something evident across Florida. Look to South Sarasota, where Neil Rainford, another DeSantis-appointed commissioner (and Pedicini client) lost to Tom Knight, even as unabashedly pro-growth Teresa Mast easily won a north Sarasota commission seat.

I see the Manatee results chiefly as the rubber band effect demonstrated. A group with total control exerted, almost arrogantly, the power to drive rhetoric as far to an extreme as possible. The inevitable snapback ripped hard. The curious part will be what a board of stung losers does over its remaining three months in power. 

Photo courtesy Manatee County Government.

The Primary Election is over. There were winners and there were losers, but the biggest winner was the community!

Residents let their voices be heard. Perhaps the one thing I saw more of this election cycle than cycles before was that calculated misinformation was quickly disputed and facts were quickly disseminated. It would be great if this would continue through the rest of the campaign cycle in November. Hopefully, this will be the start of a trend that will render these shady campaign tactics obsolete. You may get mailers at your home that cast candidates in dark shadows that make them look less than trustworthy, but frankly they are just people with different views than your own. Yet, they put themselves out there to run for office and make a difference in the community. Now, it is time to come together and work towards solutions for the community. I always believe that we have more in common than we have that divides us (okay, call me naïve).

As we saw recently in the community, there are problems we didn’t realize existed to the magnitude that they showed themselves. I’m speaking specifically about the flooding in both Manatee and Sarasota counties after Tropical Storm Debby. I’m not an expert on this subject and I won’t pretend to know what caused this calamity in the lives of so many of our neighbors, but I do know that I’ve lived down here since 1979 and I don’t recall ever seeing anything like it before. We must work together to identify and solve what caused the flooding so it doesn’t happen again.

Though I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the outpouring of goodwill and generosity we have seen after the storm, which is so typical of the great community we live in.

As after every election, the sun came up the next day. We went on with our lives and everything was and will be okay. 

Our elections have become like action movies where the Super Hero must defeat the evil villain. Maybe we just watch too many movies or maybe once again I’m just naïve. These are differences of opinions, different visions, but not good versus evil. I’m old enough now to have seen the pendulum swing several times from one way to the other and I’m still here to talk about it. The world did not come to an end during any of the swings. Our country and our community are stronger than any one election cycle. 

Our democracy is stronger than any one election cycle, no matter what those shiny dark mailers may want you to believe.

Yes, I may be naïve, but I’ve seen over and over again that what binds us together as a community and our vision for a community where we want our children to grow and prosper is far stronger than what divides us. So, let’s continue to discuss and debate. Let’s continue to hold our elected officials accountable both while they are in office and at the ballot box. Perhaps most importantly, let’s continue to come together to build a stronger, more robust and more resilient community.

Mary Dougherty is executive director of the Gulf Coast Builders Exchange. 

Photo courtesy Pier 22.